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Abstract
This study looks into how Tanzania's GDP growth and coffee export performance are affected over the long run by changes in the world coffee price between 1974 and 2024. Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Models, two time series econometric techniques, are used in the study to demonstrate a robust long-term relationship between rising global coffee prices and export earnings, which in turn support economic growth. However, short-term impacts are statistically negligible, highlighting Tanzania's economy's susceptibility to outside shocks. Critical junctures characterised by market liberalisation, policy changes, and climate events that profoundly influenced the course of the coffee industry are identified by structural break tests. The results indicate that Tanzania is more vulnerable to global market volatility due to its reliance on exporting unprocessed coffee. The study suggests several tactics to lessen this, such as strengthening cooperatives, adopting price stabilisation mechanisms, developing farmer capacity, and using agro-processing for value addition. The aforementioned measures are intended to improve economic resilience, income stability, and the coffee industry's long-term contribution to national development.