Main Article Content
Abstract
Vertical transmission of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) necessitates special attention even though there has been a remarkable improvement in the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programmes. Besides biomedical, clinical, and epidemiological factors, the macroeconomic environment also plays a critical role in determining the health financing, household welfare and access to maternal and child health services, and consequently, infant survival. The study identifies the determinants of vertical transmission of HIV with a focus on the impact of macroeconomic forces on child health outcomes using infant mortality as a key variable in Nigeria from 1990 to 2024. The study uses secondary data sourced from World Development Indicators (World Bank), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Health Organization (WHO), and Joint Maundations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). The paper employs Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration, and an Error Correction Model (ECM) to establish long-run and short-run dynamic relationships between infant mortality, interest rate, HIV prevalence, ART, PMTCT coverage, and GDP per capita. The unit root test results reveal that the series are stationary at level I(0) and first difference I(1). The cointegration test shows evidence of long-run association among the variables. The short-run estimates demonstrate that HIV prevalence worsens infant mortality, whereas ART coverage improves the mortality rate. In the short run, PMTCT coverage and GDP per capita have a positive impact on infant mortality. The study concludes that the expansion of health programmes and economic development, in isolation, cannot immediately register immediate improvements in infant survival due to the challenges of programme accessibility, targeting, and inequality. Though the coefficient of the error correction term (ECT) is negative as expected and reveals the speed of adjustment of infant mortality in response to a change in the long-run dependent variable, it is not statistically significant at the 5% level. The study recommends a combined effect of economic and health policy interventions in reducing vertical transmission of HIV and promoting sustainable development in Nigeria